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Saturday, January 5, 2008

Global Warming Controversy

The global warming controversy is a dispute regarding the nature and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century; whether the increase is real or partially an artifact of poor measurements; whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity; predictions of additional warming; what the consequences are; and what action should be taken (if any). Individuals, corporations, and political organizations are involved, so the debate is vigorous in the popular media and on a policy level.

History of public opinion

In the European Union, global warming has been a prominent and sustained issue. All European Union member states ratified the 1990 Kyoto Protocol, and many European countries had already been taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions prior to 1990 (for example, Margaret Thatcher advocated action against man-made climate change in 1988 and Germany started to take action after the Green Party took seats in Parliament in 1983). Both "global warming" and the more politically neutral "climate change" were listed by languagemonitor.com as political buzzwords or catch phrases in 2005. In Europe, the notion of human influence on climate gained wide acceptance more rapidly than in many other parts of the world, most notably the United States.[3][4]

There has been a debate among public commentators about how much weight and media coverage should be given to each side of the controversy. Andrew Neil of the BBC stated that "There's a great danger that on some issues we're becoming a one-party state in which we're meant to have only one kind of view. You don't have to be a climate-change denier to recognise that there's a great range of opinion on the subject."

The table below shows how public perceptions about the existence and importance of global warming have changed in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Statement % agreeing Who
Global warming is probably occurring. 85 US/2006
Global warming is probably occurring. 80 US/1998
Human activity is a significant cause of climate change. 71 US/2007
Human activity is a significant cause of climate change. 79 World/2007
Climate change is a serious problem. 76 US/2006
Climate change is a serious problem. 90 World/2006
Climate change is a serious problem. 78 World/2003
It's necessary to take major steps starting very soon. 59 US/2007
It's necessary to take major steps starting very soon. 65 World/2007

A June 2007 Mori poll conducted in the UK found 56% believed scientists were still questioning climate change. The survey suggested that terrorism, graffiti and crime were all of more concern than climate change. Ipsos Mori's head of environmental research, Phil Downing, said people had been influenced by counter-arguments.

The Canadian science broadcaster and environmental activist, David Suzuki, reported that focus groups organized by the David Suzuki Foundation showed the public has a poor understanding of the science behind global warming.[11] This is despite recent publicity through different means, including the films An Inconvenient Truth and The 11th Hour. An example of this poor understanding is public confusion between global warming and ozone depletion.

A 15-nation poll conducted in 2006 by Pew Global found that there "is a substantial gap in concern over global warming – roughly two-thirds of Japanese (66%) and Indians (65%) say they personally worry a great deal about global warming. Roughly half of the populations of Spain (51%) and France (46%) also express great concern over global warming, based on those who have heard about the issue. But there is no evidence of alarm over global warming in either the United States or China – the two largest producers of greenhouse gases. Just 19% of Americans and 20% of the Chinese who have heard of the issue say they worry a lot about global warming – the lowest percentages in the 15 countries surveyed. Moreover, nearly half of Americans (47%) and somewhat fewer Chinese (37%) express little or no concern about the problem." A 47-nation poll conducted in 2007 found that "Substantial majorities 25 of 37 countries say global warming is a 'very serious' problem".